Anambra Governorship Elections 2017, The Winners and Losers

Anambra Governorship Elections 2017, The Winners and Losers

Winners

1. Ndi Anambra - the people of Anambra should be the ultimate winners of the elections. They came out in appreciable numbers to cast their ballot despite the calls to boycott the elections by IPOB and the heavy police presence. The turnout was lower than expected, but those who came out conducted themselves in a dignified way as the election had very low incidences of violence.

2. APGA - the party has demonstrated beyond any reasonable doubt that Anambra is APGA and APGA is Anambra. They ran a brilliant campaign, which carried Ndi Anambra from the grassroots to the elite. The party was united in electing Obiano after seeing off the irritation of the National Chairmanship tussle between Victor Oye and Martin Agbaso. The message of “Nke a bu Nke anyi!” (This one is our own!) resonates among the Igbo who are struggling to find a political identity within the APC led Nigeria. This victory is the fourth straight governorship victory for APGA in Anambra, each one with a bigger margin than the previous one. What baffles is how this is not translated at the federal level. For all its success at the state level elections, APGA performs very poorly at the Senatorial and House of Reps elections. It is time for the party to break away from the mold of the PDP and have a proper go at federal elections. With the PDP in disarray and on a downward spiral, there is an open space APGA can inhabit. The party should present a candidate for the 2019 elections, matching the PDP and APC by presenting a northern candidate. The aim should be to place a respectable third. This would give the party a strong platform to fight the 2023 elections. The party should be more ambitious and set its sights on other states as a party and not just a contesting platform. I believe the party can mop up the PDP Igbo votes in Lagos state and place at least one member in the Lagos State House of Assembly and possibly the Federal House of Representatives

3. Governor Willy Obiano - Akpokuedike Global got this one. He predicted a landslide and delivered. 21-0 in the three-horse race is no mean feat. He benefitted from a strong APGA coupled with his modest achievements as a governor in a country in recession. He ran on a platform of improved security and prompt payment of salaries. In a country where majority of states owe salaries, a governor who pays salaries, pensions and entitlements promptly is considered a very good one. He had a hard act following the achievements of his predecessor Peter Obi. He was able to create his own identity and highlight his own achievements. Despite his average showing at the Channels Governorship Debate, he was able to demonstrate his understanding of numbers and penchant for financial terminology. It behoves on Ndi Anambra to hold him to account to deliver on the huge mandate given to him

4. President Muhammadu Buhari - the president conducted himself with dignity by not interfering with the electoral process. His visit to Anambra will go a bit of way in repairing his frosty relationship with Ndi Igbo. By restoring the security detail of the governor, he demonstrated that he was going to do what was right despite party affiliation. He came for the APC rally, did what he had to do as a party leader and left. That is how a president should act. 

5. Osita Chidoka - it is hard to understand how someone who placed a very distant 4th and with less than 2% of the votes can be a winner but Chidoka is. Contesting on the platform of the relatively unknown UPP meant that he was a no loss situation. What he succeeded in doing was to raise his profile as a very sound debater and communicator. He ran a good campaign that deployed modern technology and innovative practice. He has positioned himself as one for the future. Luckily, he has age on his side and appeals to the young. He should still be under the age of 55 by 2023 and can do worse than position himself as an Igbo candidate for the presidency then. He would do well to extricate himself from the tag of being an IPOB sympathiser, while he may have thought this would help him politically, it really was of no effect and could come back to hurt him in future.

The Losers

1. Peter Obi - By far the biggest loser in this election was St Peter of Okwute the Cornerstone. Although Oseloka Obaze was the name on the ballot for the PDP, the electorate saw Peter Obi as the contestant and rejected him. He took on Obiano, Umeh, the memory of Ojukwu and APGA and he got a bloody nose. Obi was a very good governor, the best Anambra has ever had. Most Anambrarians know and acknowledge this. His sin was abandoning APGA, a party in which he was a leading light, to join PDP in the dying days of the Jonathan presidency. For a man who comes across as very astute, only he can understand why he scored the political equivalent of an own goal by jumping into a sinking ship. The question is where does he go from here politically? His bad mouthing of Governor Obiano means that he would not be welcome back to APGA. The role he played in the emergence of Oseloka Obaze as the PDP flag bearer earned him many enemies within the party. APC? Somehow, I do not think so. For someone who was touted as a potential Igbo president, he would be lucky to win even a senatorial seat at the present time.

2. PDP - if anybody was in doubt about the decline of the once great PDP, the Anambra result should put his or her doubt to rest. To be beaten by APC in Anambra state to third is not just a poor result, it is a disgrace and an embarrassment. Internal bickering and anti-party activities was the order of the day. The party structures in the state were almost nonexistent as it was mainly the Peter Obi show. Notable party chieftains either took a back seat or out rightly came out to support the opposition as in the case of Dr Patrick Ifeanyi Ubah. The PDP is a party in trouble, they have not been able to make the transition to opposition effectively. The whole Sheriff brouhaha did not help matters and this National Chairmanship tussle will further polarise the party. The way the party is going, 2019 will be a disaster for the once self-acclaimed biggest party in Africa. If as rumoured they are about to welcome Atiku Abubakar to the party and present him as a challenger for President Muhammadu Buhari in 2019, the only thing we can all do is be like Uncle Sege and be laughing.

3. APC - Some will say APC did very well to come second and beat the PDP in the very anti-APC Igbo land. They look at the performance of Buhari at the 2015 presidential election and conclude that Tony Nwoye did quite well. It will be wrong to assume so. The APC came second mainly on the strength of Nwoye and his main sponsor Arthur Eze. The APC and its previous incarnations the AC and ACN have always done well in Anambra through the leadership of Dr Chris Ngige. It will be interesting to know how much real effort Ngige put into this election. This result by the APC in Anambra is probably the worst result posted by a ruling party in a state election. Not to even take a single local government with all the Federal might is downright embarrassing. The party seems not to be making any inroads in Igbo land and the calibre of people defecting to the party are not really the most leading of lights. In Anambra, using the likes of Rochas Okorocha of Imo and Yahaya Bello of Kogi as part of your campaign team is a bit of an own goal. These states who are Anambra’s neighbours are in much worse positions and led by APC. They do not give any confidence to Ndi Anambra that an APC government would be any better than the APGA they already have. In a last desperate bid, they unveiled Emeka Ojukwu Jr. as a decampee from APGA. Politically, Ojukwu Jr is no Ikemba, he is not even a Bianca, his electoral value in Anambra is just one, his own vote. 2019 will be interesting for the APC in the South East, all things being equal, the party should lose Imo state without gaining any state but I believe they would make some inroads in the Federal legislature picking off some PDP seats.

4. IPOB - The much-touted boycott of the election fizzled out without as much as a whimper. They promised Foe Nsala to Ndi Anambra and they rejected it for bowls of Jollof rice, Gala and Grand Malt. That boycott was never going to work, not in Anambra in any case. The people love their politics, politicians invest a lot and the economic effect of electioneering campaigns is too much a lure for the electorate. Politics brings an excitement to people’s lives and a break from the mundane. IPOB strategists failed to realise this. The security services also ensured that nobody was able to prevent anybody who wanted to exercise their civic rights. This should further show how overestimated the influence of IPOB is.

Ike Onwubuya writes from Essex, UK

Time for handshake across the Niger

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/04/time-handshake-across-niger/

Time for handshake across the Niger

On April 29, 20173:44 am In News
By Emeka Obasi

The days of acrimony should be over, there is so much to give when the Igbo and Yoruba ethnic nationalities put aside the extraneous wedge between them. Our country cannot move forward in the face of rancour.


Those of us who know history must not stand aloof and watch the younger generation degenerate to the vile language that has taken over the social media. It is like there is an undeclared war going on. Every comment is twisted to paint either the Igbo or the Yoruba in bad light.

We cannot continue like this. Besides politics, there is so much between the Igbo and Yoruba. They forged positive links during the days of British Imperialism and worked together in the push for independence. All these cannot be washed away by this bunch of uninformed, foul-speaking boys and girls of the computer age.

Let us not take away the fact that Lagos, as the then capital of Nigeria, was bound to attract people from all over the nation. The Igbo in their usual nature, found favour in the Fed al Territory. The First university, located in Ibadan , also enjoyed a large concentration of Igbo brains.

It is therefore no accident that the Chinua Achebes, Emeka Anyaokus, the Chris Okigbos, the Emma Ifeajunas , attended the premier university. While there, they bonded with men like Wole Soyinka, Bola Ige and Olu Akaraogun. That friendship will never wane, those close to them know it. What some critics see is far from reality.

The Yoruba also found the East alluring. Alhaji Alade Odunewu, veteran journalist, attended Bethel College, Onitsha. Joseph Oyeleye Adeigbo, Clerk of the Federal Parliament in 1964, began his secondary education at Government College, Umuahia and finished at Christ the King College, Onitsha.

Professor Oladeinde Ogunbi was at Dennis Memorial Grammar School, Onitsha while Bankole Oluwatuyi spent time at Zik’s Institute in the same town. Lam Adesina, Sam Ajayi, Olajide Idowu, Abisogun Leigh and Kehinde Obanla, all members of the Constituent Assembly, 1988/89, graduated from the University of Nigeria, Nsukka.

Igbo professionals worked in the Western Region just as there were Yoruba workers in the East. My uncle, Dr. Nathaniel Obasi, was a Dentist in Ibadan. Festus Oladapo Shadare, began his career with the Eastern Region Information Service in 1952.

Two Igbo heroes, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, and Chief Emeka Ojukwu, grew up in Lagos and spoke fluent Yoruba. Zik’s children bear Yoruba names. In fact, some of his best friends were from the West. One of them, Chief Adeniran Ogunsanya, died in November 1996, shortly after the Owelle was laid to rest.

Benjamin Adekunle, son of an Ogbomosho father and a Bachama mother, was good in Igbo. He picked it from his Igbo childhood friends in the North and perfected it when he was in Enugu as Aide de Camp to Eastern Region Governor, Sir Akanu Ibiam. He also met his Ijaw wife, Comfort Akie Wilcox there. Michael Adelanwa and Sunday Adewusi, were at different times, Zik’s ADC.

Ibiam married a Yoruba lady. And that is part of the partnership between the Igbo and Yoruba. The third military governor of the West, Oluwole Rotimi, had an Igbo wife. The wedding reception was chaired by Ojukwu. The first civilian governor of Oshun State, Isiaka Adeleke, had maternal roots in Abia State. That implies that entertainer, Davido’s grandmother was an Igbo woman. The First Lady of Ondo State has Anyanwu as maiden name.

Not many know that Achebe had Yoruba in-laws. Anyaoku, and Prof. Vincent Ike have Yoruba wives. Ike as a traditional ruler does not have an Igbo woman by his side. The First Igbo Four-Star General, Paul Dike’s wife is from the West. Philip Asiodu’s better half is Olajumoke Pereira.

Asiodu lived comfortably in the West, no Yoruba harmed him as the civil war raged. His brother, Sidney, great athlete, was executed in Asaba by Nigerian soldiers. Many Igbo footballers stayed put in the West. ‘World Two,’ Tony Igwe, Austin Ofuokwu and Sam Opone played for the Green Eagles. Obisia Nwakpa lived in Lagos too.

In Biafra all through the crisis, lived Kofoworola, First daughter of Oba of Lagos, Adeyinka Akinola Oyekan. She was married to a Biafran naval officer, Nicholas Ohiaeriaku of Ogwuagga-Abba, in Imo State. What an irony that her husband was captured in Bonny by the Nigerian Navy led by Akin Aduwo, who like Adekunle, had an Ijaw wife. The Biafran remained a Prisoner of War until 1970. The Commander of Biafra School of Infantry was Captain Ganiyu Adeleke.

Those who want the Yoruba and Igbo to remain in perpetual separation know they are destroying Nigeria. These two groups must come together. There is a lot to share and much more to gain. Back to History.

The First Northerner to qualify as a lawyer was indeed a Yoruba from Ilorin; Ganiyu Folorunsho AbdulRazaq. Can you beat this? He was born in Onitsha in 1927, and attended CMS Primary School there before proceeding to Kalabari National College, Buguma.

Chief Ogunsanya was so much in love with the Igbo that as Commissioner for Education in Lagos, he offered scholarships to Igbo students. And his house address was No. 5 Godwin Okigbo Street , Surulere.

In the past we had F. Ebubedike in the Western House. Today, there are more in Lagos.

I have a lot to say personally. In 1983, I worked for Chief Awolowo’s Unity Party of Nigeria. My dad belonged to the Nigeria Peoples Party and was a local government chairman. I used his vehicle to carry UPN Party agents. He did not scold me for once.

Dr. Obasi bought property in Ibadan in the 1950s and due to the war, forgot about that investment. He died in 1999. Much later, his children went to Ibadan, discovered the land which was still untouched and sold it.

These things have to be exposed. Igbo/ Yoruba ties are deep. It is time to come together. Onward Nigeria.

Soyinka: If we do not tame religion in Nigeria, religion would kill us

Source: http://thenewsnigeria.com.ng/2017/01/soyinka-if-we-do-not-tame-religion-in-nigeria-religion-would-kill-us/

Nobel laureate, Professor Wole Soyinka has noted that if not urgently curtailed  religious crisis and the attendants killing being witnessed in various parts of the country may ultimately lead to “unmaking of Nigeria.”

Soyinka spoke in Abuja at the launch of the book “Religion and the Making of Nigeria” written by Prof. Olufemi Vaughan held at Musa Yar’Adua Centre, Abuja on Thursday.

Vice President Yemi Osinbajo was special guest of honour at the event.

While lamenting that from the way it is being practiced now, religion “is more likely to induce anxiety leading to trauma rather than solace and the consolation of spirituality which many religions claim for themselves,” the Nobel Laureate noted that the people usually killed during religious crisis were the innocent ones.

“The sitting president of this nation, Gen. Buhari once said ‘If you don’t kill corruption in this nation, corruption would kill us.’ I would like to transfer that cry from the moral zone to the terrain of religion. If we do not tame religion in this nation, religion would kill us,” said Soyinka who wondered what would have happened if religion was never invented.

“I do not say kill religion, though I wouldn’t mind a bit if that mission could be undertaken surgically; painlessly, perhaps, under anaesthesia effectively sprayed all over the nation or perhaps during an induced pouch of religious ecstasy.  However, one has to be realistic.

“Only the religiously possessed or committed would deny the obvious. The price that many have paid not just within this society, but by humanity in general makes one wonder if the benefits have really been more than the losses.

While wondering on the factors that may have been responsible for the transformation of religion to a killing machine, Soyinka said it is no longer sufficient for religious leaders to disown purveyors of violence within their fold “for the simple reason that others who dissociate themselves from conduct which universally is condemned are themselves declaring themselves partisans of their own in contradistinctions to others.”

He also condemned the handling of the ethno-religious crisis in southern part of Kaduna State which according to Christian Association of Nigeria has claimed over 808 lives.

Soyinka was particularly galled by admission by the state governor, Nasir El-Rufai that he paid herdsmen responsible for the carnage to stop the killings.

Soyinka said: “What astonished me was not the admission by the governor but the astonishment of others at such governmental response to atrocity.

He added that people should not have been surprised about the open confession of the governor because such policy of appeasement has become the norm in the country.

“There was nothing new about it. If you ask why Gen. Buhari did not act fast enough when these events take place, which degrade us as human beings, well it is perhaps he has been waiting for the governor of that state to send money to the killers first for them to stop the killing.”

Also speaking at the occasion, Vice President Osinbajo said religion itself was not the problem of the country, but the crises arising from its practice. The Vice President noted for example, that while religion has contributed to educational development of Nigeria, it is also one of the tools being used by the elite to gain social, economic and political advantage in the country.

“The manipulation of religion by the elites has led to the problem that we are facing. Nigerian elite will use religion when it is convenient and at other times they may use ethnicity or some other form of identification.”

“National character is very hypocritical. When we are playing football, we all clamour for the best legs because we want to win. We don’t ask how many Muslims or Christians are in the team. When you are sick, nobody asks the religion of the doctor. We only ask about competencies.”

The Vice President, however said the relatively low rate of prosecution of those arrested for involvement in religious violence was not deliberate.

He noted that the country seemed to has a problem in successfully prosecuting cases of homicides, citing the inability of the country to bring those behind high profile murders to book as an example.

Also speaking at the event Catholic Bishop of Sokoto Diocese Mathew Hassan Kukah noted that religion had been used mainly for manipulative tendencies by northern elites.

“Unless we get round to defining what constitutes religion and in this particular case, the way and manner in which how the northern ruling class continues to use religion as a cover to perpetuate and subjugate the people, the problem will persist.”

The cleric said most reports of commission of enquiries set up after religious crisis in most parts of Nigeria indicated that such problems were usually set off by fight over economic resources and things not related to religion.

Others who graced the event include include Secretary to Oyo State Government Olalekan Alli, former Cross River Governor Donald Duke, Amb. Folorunso Otukoya,  Justice Ajoke Adepoju, Prof Hamidou Bole, Bishop Hassan Kukah, and  Sen. Babafemi Ojudu among others.

The author of the book, Professor Vaughan, is currently the Geoffrey Canada Professor of Africana Studies and History at Bowdoin College, Maine and a Senior Editor of the Oxford Research Encyclopedia in African History.

He was also recently appointed Henry Steele Commager Professor at Amherst College, Massachusetts.

“Religion and Making of Nigeria is a well wrought and eloquently crafted analysis of the intriguing linkage between religion and modern state formation in Nigeria. Drawing on archival and contemporary sources, Olufemi Vaughan adroitly situates his material within the vortex of historical and anthropological contention over the religious antecedents of colonial and postcolonial Nigeria.

“Elegantly written, Religion and the Making of Nigeria is a truly outstanding work of interdisciplinary analysis that is likely to become the standard bearer for scholarship on religion and evolution of the modern Nigerian state in the forseeable future,”  Ebenezer Obadare, Professor of Sociology, University of Kansas said in his review of the book.

11 posers for Osinbajo

By Bolanle Bolawole

“…It is important for us to understand the nature of this recession in which we have found ourselves…If we did not have the vandalism in the Niger Delta as we are currently suffering, we will not have this recession today” – Vice President Yemi Osinbajo.

As the economic crisis bites harder and the recession deepens, it has become necessary to interrogate previously held truths and ask unpalatable questions that may unearth issues that the powers-that-be would rather securely keep under wraps. We do ourselves grievous harm if we look at their faces or consider how they feel or react when we hold their feet to the fire. We the ordinary people suffer the perilous times more than the leaders; if they suffer it at all! They hear about it and talk about it but it is not more than mere statistics to them because they don’t feel it in the real sense of the word.

We are the ones wearing the shoe; they glide about in their presidential and private jets and bullet-proof, state-of-the-art limousines fuelled and maintained at whopping costs at public expense. They are more than adequately protected from the vagaries and vicissitudes of economic depression. Their needs and wants that money can buy are met at public expense. They don’t wake up thinking about the basic needs of man – food, clothing, and shelter. They don’t go to bed worrying about where their next meal will come from. Their children go to the best schools; they and their family enjoy the best facilities everywhere. They are called public servants but Nigeria serves them instead!

The Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria appears to recognise the Vice President as a very important public servant on economic matters. He shall be Chairman of the National Economic Council, which shall also consist of the state governors and governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria. As important as his position is, we must note that the VP does not have the last say since the National Economic Council that he chairs only “have power to advise the President concerning the economic affairs of the Federation…” Stripped of all adornments, the VP is nothing more than a glorified adviser on economic affairs to the President.

Taking a cue from ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo, the President is not even obligated to accept his VP’s advice. On the surface, it would appear as if Osinbajo is being allowed by President Muhammadu Buhari to handle the economy but grapevine sources dish out misgivings. While too much secrecy surrounds government, there is no smoke without a fire. Intrigues and power-play, as much as incompetence and inefficiency, have been the grave yards of many governments. Based upon the foregoing, I have 11 questions for Osinbajo. I expect him to forthrightly address them – or he should forever hold his peace!

One: Does he actually preside over the National Economic Council as enshrined in the Constitution? Two: Does he perform his constitutionally assigned role of an economic adviser to the President without let or hindrance? Three: Has he offered the President advice on the economic depression? Four: How will he describe the President’s attitude to the advice he gives – excellent; satisfactory; not-too-satisfactory; poor; very poor? Five: Does he have unfettered access to the President? Six: Does he have the ears of the President? Seven: As the Number Two Citizen, is his position and person accorded the expected respect and deference by official and unofficial sources around the President? Eight: How is he carried along on important Government decisions: All the time; some of the time; once in a while; rarely; not at all? Nine: Is he aware that strident criticisms of the performance of the economy are direct or indirect indictment of his capabilities and competencies? Ten: Is he aware that his performance in this government will rub off positively or negatively on the geo-political zone where he comes from?

If we know our leaders too well, we may never get a public answer to these questions; and if at all, it could be what is safe and proper to say in public. But, again, there is no smoke without a fire. As much as our leaders may try, a lot of information they wish were suppressed would still escape into the public domain. For instance, we know that the intransigence of the President on devaluation of the Naira left the issue unresolved for too long until the currency had suffered irreversible losses. When, eventually, he succumbed, the quantum of devaluation needed had become appalling. This was like the case of the proverbial sick person in Yoruba folklore who was required to simply say to, to get healed but insisted he would not say to to to. He ended up paying thrice the price! Who are the unofficial economic advisers who have erected themselves between the President and those constitutionally assigned the responsibility? They should come into the open so we can know them and hold them accountable, instead of pillorying the wrong people.

We would also like to examine their economic blueprints and subject same to public scrutiny. The President and his unofficial economic advisers will also do the country a world of good if they sit in the meetings of this administration’s economic team, contribute to arguments and be mindful of how decisions are arrived it. It makes little sense to stand aloof, unmindful of the efforts that produced a decision, only to whimsically toss it out of the window. Much time is wasted this way before decisions are reached. The officials assigned the duty of managing the economy keep going back and forth with very little to show for their efforts. They are presented as incompetent when this, actually, may not have been the case. They soon get exasperated and discouraged. They soon get unsure, unsteady, and uncertain in their steps.

By the way, is there an Economic Team? Who are the members? The President has left the country guessing. So, our guess has been that the VP, CBN Governor, Ministers of Finance and Budget Planning; possibly the DG, Debt Management Office; and a few other Presidency officials and Special Advisers and or Assistants constitute the official Economic Team. No one should expect that state governors would have the time to commit full blast to the National Economic Council; neither should we expect Ministers, DGs and others who have other statutory assignments to take care of. So, the team is amorphous as it is. The job appears to be everyone’s job which ends up being no one’s job. Has it been deliberately structured this way so it may fail? Is this a ploy to make for the continued relevance of influence peddlers and unofficial economic advisers around the President? Is it also true what we hear that this government is opposed to a bi-partisan approach to tackling “this depression”?

And that it must be the duty of the APC-led government alone so that the impression is not created that they are not on top of the problem? That under no condition should be independent-minded persons be allowed to meddle in what is now seen as purely the “family affairs” of APC? I dare to say that, this way, we can only sink deeper in the miry clay. All promises that we will exit depression by the fourth quarter of this year will, in the end, turn mere cold comfort. When we are dangerously close to the timelines set for depression exit (DEPREXIT) and nothing is happening, they will shift the goal post! We have suffered that again and again in this country. Can the VP please name those working with him on the economy? We need to know so we can examine their credentials – and also hold them accountable. Proffered solutions must be openly traded before they become policies. There is too much monkey business about the way the economy is being handled at the moment.

All hands must be on the deck for us to exit depression. Government policies must be clearly discernible and consistent; not ‘ban this today, unban it tomorrow, ban it again the next day’ ad nauseam. Fiscal and monetary policies must align and reinforce one another and not work at cross-purposes. The CBN appears too fussy about protecting its assumed turf while government is too flustered to mount a challenge. The three tiers of government must work as congruent; everyone for himself and God for us all will move us nowhere near DEPREXIT soon. At no other time since the Civil War has this country been this divisive as well as frustrated with the leadership. The Buhari Presidency has neither been the rallying point nationwide that it ought to be nor has it provided the effective leadership that the times demand. My final question to Osinbajo: This government, if it got nothing positive at all from previous governments as it has shouted from rooftops, got a peaceful or quietened Niger Delta handed over to it; who frittered that peace?

The late President Umaru Yar’Adua, a deep and thoughtful thinker, no doubt, assiduously cobbled together peace in a region whose restiveness had blighted previous military and civilian administrations – but within weeks of coming into office, this administration squandered that peace and brought back Niger Delta militancy, which in turn has brought “this depression” (Osinbajo’s words quoted above). If renewed Niger Delta militancy is what has brought “this depression”, then, the APC\Buhari administration is to be held responsible for on-going unimaginable and unpardonable suffering of Nigerians.

What we lose in revenue in just one day as a result: “over one million barrels of crude oil on a daily basis” (again, Osinbajo’s words) multiplied by the cost of crude oil per barrel on the international market is more than all the advertised cash\property recovered by the anti-corruption agencies plus the garrulous posturing and international junketing of this administration in search of elusive FDI. Kobo wise, Naira foolish! Whereas I pity Osinbajo – suddenly, he is grey hair all over and looks older than his actual age – it gets easier by the day to scapegoat and sacrifice him on account of his perceived but orchestrated (mis)handling of the economy.

-turnpot@gmail.com 0705 263 1058

Source: http://thenewsnigeria.com.ng/2016/09/11-posers-for-osinbajo/

Buhari And The Solution To The Nigerian Currency Quagmire By Femi Pedro

Our nation is currently submerged in a currency crisis. The value of our national currency is tumbling against the dollar on a daily basis, and our foreign exchange reserves continue to dwindle as a result of the continuous fall in the price of crude oil. In recent months, there has been a rigorous debate as to whether the devaluation of our currency is the answer to these problems, and what specific measures need to be put in place to stabilize our currency and prevent further damage to our fragile economy. As the debate rages on, the damage to the naira, the economy, and the psyche of our people has intensified. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) appears to have lost significant control of the situation, and speculators, currency traffickers and perpetrators of arbitrage have seized the initiative in the parallel market. 

President Muhammadu Buhari speaking in ParisState House Photos

It is fair to say that under President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure, the Nigerian Financial Sector has endured its reasonable share of activity and critical scrutiny. Four major incidents have stood out, and these incidents are intertwined in terms of the collective impact they have all had on the sustained call to devalue the Naira. First, in the past year alone (dating back to the previous administration), the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has reeled out a series of policy reforms on the foreign exchange market that has sent panic to the market. Leading up to the general elections conducted last year, the market began to experience a significant shortage of dollars. This dwindling of our reserves was caused by falling oil prices, while the huge demand was fuelled by election spending and the accompanying market nervousness about the possible change of government. The CBN’s response to these events further exacerbated the situation, and this has driven the parallel market rates to the roof. Secondly, the Federal Government issued a directive on the consolidation of Government revenues into a single treasury account (TSA), a bold policy currently being implemented at its infancy stages by the CBN. The immediate effect of this policy has been the estimated movement of over N2 trillion from private banks to the CBN, which has dipped liquidity and spiked interbank and other interest rates. Thirdly, and probably as a result of the first two points, we received the curious news sometime in 2015 that JP Morgan Chase-an American-based International Financial Service Firm- would be delisting Nigeria from its Government Bond Index for Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) in what they called “a phased-out process” between September and October this year. JP Morgan cited a lack of transparency and liquidity in our foreign exchange market as the primary reason for its decision. The significance of this announcement cannot be understated, because JP Morgan Chase provides the pricing and trading platform for foreign investors who hold or are planning to hold Nigerian Government-issued bonds, and they also create and sustain an active market for these bonds. Finally, and most problematically, has been the dramatic slump in the price of crude oil, which in turn has had an adverse effect on our dwindling reserves. 

These major action points, alongside some of the uncertainties that have arisen as the Federal Government grapples with how to articulate its holistic fiscal policy and medium-term Economic framework, have created deep-rooted cracks on the naira exchange rate. The cumulative effect has been the sustained pressure (both locally and internationally) carefully mounted on the CBN to devalue the naira to reflect its ‘true’ value at the parallel market. The pressure is on the government to remove its hold on the official rate by moving the rate closer to the parallel market rate, with the expectation that a higher official rate would price the scarce foreign exchange appropriately and attract players back to the official market, thereby improving supply and increasing market stability. If historical antecedents are anything to go by, this devaluation proposition is unlikely to have the desired effect. 

Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it, so in our attempt to adopting bold, decisive and creative solutions to stop the economic bleeding, we must properly educate ourselves on our current situation, and how we got here in the first place. It is a situation that has played itself out in countries like Brazil, Argentina, Greece and Venezuela. Some of these countries survived their currency quagmire by taking bold, decisive and creative steps to limit the damage to their economy and return their currency back to normalcy. In actual fact, this is not a situation that is completely unfamiliar to us. 

The current foreign exchange regime is an off-shoot of the last major reforms between 1995 and 1999. The supply of foreign exchange has been dwindling since the price of crude oil started its free-fall in 2015, whilst foreign exchange demand has been on the rise due to market confusion, its negative perception of future supply, recent CBN measures to manage demand and an overall loss of confidence in the market by foreign investors and speculative dealers in foreign exchange. Indeed, the structural impediments or the 90s are still intact today. Rather than removing the bureaucratic bottlenecks in the system, successive CBN administrations have been focusing on defending the naira by tinkering with the pricing mechanism, while letting illegal operators take the initiative. The result of this is the existence of a two-tier market - the legal (official) market, and the illegal (parallel) market. 

The official market comprises of the CBN as the main supplier, and banks, oil companies, non-oil exporters, Bureau de Change (BDC) licensed operators and legitimate end-users who deal in the inter-bank and autonomous trading window within the banking system. The CBN has kept a lid on the rate in this market at around 199 naira to a dollar. This is the only legal foreign exchange market supported by existing laws. The parallel market comprises of a collection of players including speculators, currency traders, street currency hawkers, tourists, travellers, traders, small and medium sized businesses (SMEs) and migrants from the official market attracted by the huge differentials in the rates for arbitrage opportunities, and the ease and simplicity of the market. The problem has been further compounded by the CBN’s conscious and deliberate position to ignore the parallel market’s existence by pretending that there is only one exchange rate. Its stubbornness has driven buyers and sellers to the parallel market, making the official market more unstable. 

Of course, the primary objective has always been the efficient management of the foreign exchange market by determining the true price of foreign currency vis-a-vis the naira. The reality is that nobody- including the CBN- knows the true value of the naira. The value of a currency is its price, just like price determines the value of goods and services. The Naira-Dollar ‘product’ is like any other good; its price is determined by a complex interplay of demand and supply, which forms the price at equilibrium. The real conundrum is this: who knows the actual demand and supply? Of course, the CBN knows how much dollars are available for sale on a weekly basis, and how much naira is utilized to meet the demand for the dollar. The information that the CBN possesses comes from its position as the major supplier of both currencies, and its main function as the banker to our banks and the custodian of the foreign exchange market. In truth however, nobody has the authentic information on the actual volumes of Naira and Dollars chasing each other in our economy. 

To make matters more complicated, this is only a segment of the market. For example, the official exchange rate is pegged at approximately N199 to $1 because it is based on CBN’s information on the official demand and supply, which is supposed to be the equilibrium price. Unfortunately, the mechanism for arriving at this rate is largely discretionary, unscientific and questionable. The CBN may have been right in arriving at this rate, but it very well may have been wrong in arriving at this rate as well. The parallel market rate is hovering between N250 and N400-$1 today because the market gets some of its supply from the CBN and will naturally add profit to resell. It is selling mostly cash, which always sells at a premium. Cash has a monopoly because the traders in this market have perfected the art of rigging rates. All these aggregately ensure that the parallel market rates will forever be ahead of the official rates. It is therefore wrong to use the parallel market rate as a reference point because it is not quite determined by any traceable interplay of demand and supply. The rate is rigged and illegal, and should be ignored in its entirety. 

It is therefore not unlikely that the parallel market might be bigger and more active than the official CBN market. Nobody knows the exact volume of dollars being traded in this unofficial market, or the naira-cash floating outside the banking system that is being used to buy and sell dollars. We do not have accurate estimates on the number of mallams, or the total volume being traded by them daily. We do not know the exact volume being traded by unregistered foreign exchange dealers all over the country. We also do not know the exact amount of raw cash dollars imported and exported by Nigerians and foreigners. So, how then can you determine the equilibrium price of a market with so many unknowns! 

President Buhari is correct in believing that our currency does not need to be devalued – for the time being. For example, no amount of devaluation will bring up the price of oil. Indeed, devaluation will not eliminate parallel market players, nor will it necessarily increase the supply of dollars into the market. In actual fact, devaluation will simply push the official rate (and by extension, the parallel rate) up, thereby compounding the currency crisis and further driving more players to the parallel market. Inflation will rise, impacting the cost of essential products and services within our economy. 

The sum-total of the aforementioned points is that it is unhelpful to conclude that our naira is should be devalued because we simply do not have any rational indices for measuring the naira’s true value. A further devaluation will devastate our economy because it will technically make our imports more expensive and our exports cheaper. Of course, this is somewhat unhelpful to us because we import practically everything and export very little except oil, whose price is determined internationally, and our supply also quota-based. Therefore, the gains of devaluation would be inapplicable to our situation, while the adverse effects- higher import prices, higher rate of inflation, more pressure on the demand for dollar, higher unemployment and general recession- would be catastrophic to us. 

Perhaps, a silver lining in all of this can be adduced from our recent experience with petroleum importation, pricing and marketing. The introduction of the subsidy regime by the Obasanjo administration around 2005, while commendable in its intent to maintain a low pump price on our imported petroleum products, turned out to be a catastrophic and costly error on the part of the previous administrations that retained it. The subsidy-era was marred by market instability, regular fuel shortages, a thriving black market for fuel and huge debts allegedly owed to importers. Now that the subsidy regime is virtually non-existent, the market has gradually become stable, and many of the associated problems have disappeared. First, there is only one recognized market price (at the filling stations) across the country. Secondly, there no longer exists a thriving parallel market for petrol; there simply is no need for one, as there is no scarcity or bottleneck in the supply chain for now. Thirdly, suppliers are motivated to supply because the pump price has been determined by factoring all possible costs and profit margin from point of purchase to point of sale. Finally, this system will always adjust the pump price mechanically, thereby guaranteeing regular supply at all times. The end result is that consumers are invariably assured that supply will be regular and price would continue to be market-determined. There is no guarantee that this current solution will be permanent, but it is at least a marked improvement from the previous uncertainty. A replication of this way of thinking by the CBN will go a long way towards returning normalcy to our currency market. 

What then is the way forward with our currency? First, the Federal Government has to fast-track its efforts towards implementing a sustainable fiscal policy regime tailored towards boosting our local industry. Curbing corruption, promoting import substitution and the exportation of indigenous products will go a long way in achieving this aim. Many other countries like India, South Africa, Malaysia, Indonesia, Egypt etc have little or no oil dollars, but they all have more stable currencies and stronger liquidity than we currently do. They have been able to successfully tap into these “other sources” and develop a stable foreign exchange system with a thriving market to boost supply and manage demand. 

Secondly, a critical solution lies in our ability to bring sanity to our foreign exchange system and have better controls over the demand and supply mechanism. As a matter of national emergency, the parallel market has to be destroyed. The Foreign Exchange (Monitoring & Miscellaneous Provisions) act of 1995 as amended, the Money Laundering (Prohibition) Act of 2011 and other Laws of the Federation are some of the legal tools available to enforce the collapse of the parallel market. 

The CBN has to overhaul the foreign exchange regime by bringing all legitimate buyers and sellers into the official market. For example, the use of credit cards to make purchases online and in foreign currencies should be re-introduced, with each authorized dealer setting its own limit depending on capacity. The way to do this is to simplify the buying and selling process by making documentation easy and seamless, and accommodate all economic users of foreign exchange. The buying and selling process could be simplified through the authorized dealers with clear and unambiguous rules, while CBN provides adequate supply to the market at all times. 

Finally, and perhaps most crucially, the CBN must create a buyer surcharge and seller premium system. It should be noted that the CBN is not the only supplier to the market. Other suppliers include oil firms, exporting firms, Nigerians in diaspora, foreign investors, foreign lenders, etc. These suppliers could provide a much higher volume to the market than the CBN if motivated and encouraged. Under this system, buyers of foreign exchange for products and services categorised as essential or critical to the economy would be sold foreign exchange at the official buying rate. Rather than impose restrictions and/or bans on other users of foreign exchange outside the essential list, the foreign exchange could be sold to non-essential categories at the same official buying rate (a single exchange rate system) but with an additional surcharge imposed for accessing foreign exchange. The surcharge could either be flat, or could fluctuate depending on the nature of the product/service being imported. This will be paid upfront at the point of purchase to the coffers of government. It can be categorized as a special tax for users of foreign exchange for purposes considered as non-essential or non-contributory to the progress of the economy. This special tax becomes a premium to government. It will be an immediate boost to the national revenue, and the Government may choose to utilize this fund to promote and boost the non-oil export sector. It will also make these products and services more expensive, and possibly have the long term effect of discouraging the importation of non-essential items. Simultaneously, suppliers of foreign exchange to the market can be incentivized into selling at the official selling rate, while also earning an "incentive premium". For example, an incentive premium of 10% could be paid from the surcharge proceeds to encourage and motivate suppliers to bring their foreign exchange to the official market. This system of surcharge and premium could be sustained until the market stabilizes. The CBN would simply midwife the process by maintaining and aggregating adequate supply into the market as much as possible. It would also be responsible for posting the official daily buying and selling rates based on market fundamentals, managing the surcharge and premium regime, and determining the categorisation of essential users on a periodic basis. It should also put in place a regular audit and monitoring process to ensure strict compliance and adherence. 

The immediate effect of effectively implementing the above recommendations will be a single official foreign exchange market with all players (buyers, sellers, dealers, government) adhering to the same set of rules and regulations. The parallel market would die a natural death, and there will be an efficient pricing mechanism with a single exchange rate. This in turn will lead to an effective and efficient management of our foreign exchange reserves, and will enhance the attraction of foreign exchange into the system from other sources. Putting the tax and incentive mechanism in place will have the combined effect of encouraging supply and penalizing the frivolous use of our scarce foreign exchange. This also creates a new source of revenue for the Government, and acts as a check on those who would normally cheat on import-duty payments. The economic impact will be appreciation or depreciation, but not a devaluation of the value of the naira. There will be market and price stability, gradual confidence restored back to the single market and demand and supply equilibrium. 

It would become easier for the Federal Government to deploy its security apparatus and other legal instruments towards chasing away the remnant players in the illegal market when the CBN successfully brings the legal buyers and sellers into the official market. With regards to the parallel market operators, the Government should apply the same vigor that it is adopting in its pursuit of corrupt officials, because every effort to manage our foreign exchange market will simply be like pouring water into a woven basket until the parallel market is eliminated or reduced to insignificance. 

These issues have been with us for over 35 years. They are not going away until we take a firm stand to render the underground foreign exchange market insignificant and irrelevant. Only then can we start focusing on addressing the actual value of our currency against the dollar and other currencies. In the interim, any attempt to devalue the currency amounts to treating an ailment without a proper diagnosis. 

Otunba Femi Pedro is a Banker and an Economist. He is a former Deputy Governor of Lagos State, and the former Managing Director of First Atlantic Bank (FinBank) Plc. He can be reached via the Twitter Handle: @femipedro

Source: http://saharareporters.com/2016/02/26/buhari-and-solution-nigerian-currency-quagmire-%E2%80%A8by-femi-pedro

Predictions on Buhari that never materialised

-Buhari will die before the Election- Ayo Fayose

 -Buhari is brain dead - Patient Jonathan

 -If APC survives till October 2014,call me a bastard.- Doyin Okupe

 -Mark my words, It will not happen for Buhari to rule Nigeria. - Doyin

 Okupe.

 -If APC wins, I will go on exile. - Bode George.

 -Buhari can never win in Yorubaland. - Gani Adams.

 -Jonathan will shock APC with defeat. - FFK

 -If Jonathan loses, we would set Nigeria on fire. -Asari Dokubo.

 -We instigated the 6 weeks postponement so that Jonathan can win. - Fasehun

 -I will deliver 1 million votes to Jonathan in Ondo state. - Mimiko

 -We shall deliver the South West votes to Jonathan. - Afenifere

 --Tinubu is no longer a force in the South West. -Yinka Odumakin.

 -Buhari at 70 wears diapers like my mother. -Fayose

 -Jonathan already has Lagos votes.- Obanikoro.

Posted by Ike Onwubuya

Social media and Nigeria's new civil war

Nigeria has been on the throes of a virtual civil for the past few years. This war which has pitched brother against brother is fought thankfully not in a battlefield but on social media. The battlegrounds are Facebook, Nairaland, Twitter, to a lesser extent Instagram and other sundry online forums. This war is basically between the Igbos and Yorubas with the other tribes acting as not so innocent bystanders. These two tribes due to their large, enlightened and educated populations dominate the social media sphere in Nigeria. The Niger Deltans and other southern minorities tend to passively support the Igbos, while the Hausas, who are really the target of the Igbo attack, support the Yorubas explicitly. This war have with words as its weapons, have added to the vocabulary such interesting words and phrases as “Zoo”, “Wailing Wailers”, “Ofe Nmanu”, “Biafraud”, “Dullards”, “Elections have been won and lost” amongst other colourful words and phrases.

It's hard to know the origins of this war. Historically, Ndigbo dislike the Hausa/Fulani and distrust the Yorubas. The Yorubas, distrust the Igbos and dislike the Hausas. The Hausas dislike the Igbos and distrust the Yorubas. This circle of dislike and distrust culminated in the Nigerian civil war of 1967-1970 which pitched the Igbos as Biafra against the rest of Nigeria. To a good proportion of Igbos, the Biafra war was between the Igbos and Hausas and they believe they had an agreement from some Yoruba “leaders” to join them in the fight against the Hausas and felt betrayed when these Yoruba “leaders” reneged and instead of being at best neutral, became staunch antagonists.

The advent of social media and its attendant freedom of speech has given a new generation an avenue to vent their spleen and spew the hate that almost destroyed their parent’s generation. This new bitter phase of the war began with the emergence of the All Peoples Congress  (APC). The worst nightmare for an Igbo propagandist is an alliance between the old enemies of Yorubas and Hausas, which is what APC depicts when viewed along Nigeria's ethnic fault lines. The Igbos had adopted the then Nigerian President Goodluck ‘Ebele’ ‘Azikiwe’ Jonathan as one of their own. The fact the Jonathan is from Bayelsa state in the Niger Delta of Ijaw extraction is of little consequence. He is not Yoruba, he is not Hausa/Fulani, he is a Southerner, he is a Christian, his name is Azikiwe, so he is as close to Igbo as you can get without actually being Igbo. The Igbos supported Jonathan and PDP in 2011 and were ready to back him to the hilt in 2015. They viewed any attack on Jonathan as a personal attack on Igbos, the belief was that the Yorubas and Hausa/Fulani are uniting for the sole purpose of kicking out a southern Christian minority. It also didn’t help that a lot of the APC leaders were Muslims. On the Igbo side of social media at the run-up to the election, the APC was often depicted as a Muslim party and even called sponsors of Boko Haram.

The Yoruba protagonists on social media on the hand viewed APC as the best thing since sliced bread. They often made reference to the “cluelessness” of President Goodluck Jonathan, while depicting Buhari as the Messiah in waiting and Bola Tinubu as John the Baptist. A lot of Yorubas felt shortchanged by the Jonathan government and saw the APC as an avenue to get back into the mainstream of Nigerian politics. To do that, they had to demystify and then crush the ruling government and their social media mouthpieces, the Igbos. The Yorubas were the harshest critics of the Jonathan administration on social media and were the propaganda machine behind the APC.

The defeat of the ruling PDP at the 2015 general elections means that there is now a role reversal. The hunter has now become the hunted. Where in the past we had “Jonathan the Clueless” now we have “Buhari the Dullard”. The Igbos on social media have now become the main critics of the Buhari administration for which they have earned the unenviable name of the “Wailing Wailers”, and they in turn call Buhari supporters inmates of the “Zoo”. Only on social media!

Any news on social media can be used as a tool for ethnic points scoring. From the ethnic make-up of the appointments of President Buhari, the long awaited ministerial list, the death of the Ooni of Ife and the “Abobaku” debacle; utterances of Femi Fani-Kayode, the fallout between Super Eagles head coach Sunday Oliseh and his erstwhile captain Vincent Enyeama, even as mundane a topic as the nominees for the Headies awards has the internet ethnic bigots slugging it out.

The emergence of the likes of Nnamdi Kanu, Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and Radio Biafra has taken this war to whole new level. This internet army complete with facebook pages, Twitter handles, a flag, virtual embassies and even a National Football team have become the greatest social media phenomenon in Nigeria. It is arguable that this group is a match to the very effective APC propaganda that won Buhari the presidency on social media. In Nnamdi Kanu, they have an arrowhead who seems to have captured more young Igbo hearts than his earlier incarnation, Ralph Uwazurike of MASSOB. Kanu with his take no prisoners, no holds barred way of speaking, he has captured the hearts and minds of many an Igbo youth who now believe the Igbos are better off as an independent state than in Nigeria. It is very common to see many Ndigbo signing off their comments with Kanu’s catchphrase “Chukwu Okike Abiama”.

This war will only be fought and lost on social media. It gives a lot of people an avenue to exhibit their innate bigotry. It shows us that Nigerians are not really the most tolerant of people and that from generation to generation, the tribal fault lines on which Nigeria is built has not been repaired. It is alarming that a good number of the hate protagonists on Social Media are products of Unity Schools and the National Youth Service Corps. These were schemes that were initiated foster unity by bringing people of different ethnicities and background together at a younger age. This is to ensure that we have unity in our diversity. These are people who work with and socialise with people of different ethnicities in real life but come on social media to score cheap points. Are these people really ethnic bigots? Some definitely are, but the majority are noisemakers who are enjoying a game of “my tribe is better than yours”. For those beating the drums of war, if you want to test your power, there is Boko Haram to be defeated, your country needs willing soldiers.

Ike Onwubuya writes from the United Kingdom

Forgive Oba Akiolu And Move On, Buhari Tells Igbos

The president-elect, Rtd. General Muhammadu Buhari has urged the Ndigbos and other non-indigenes residing in Lagos state to overlook the anti-tribal comments of Oba of Lagos, Akiolu Rilwan.

Oba Akiolu Rilwan

Punch reports that the former Head of State pleaded with all Igbos in Lagos state to move on and forgive all that has been said against them for the sake of peace.

Buhari made the call during a rally held on Tuesday  in Lagos to address the comments made by the Oba.

Recall that Akiolu has been under fire since Monday when he reportedly threatened the Ndigbo in Lagos to either vote for the APC governorship candidate, Mr. Akinwunmi Ambode, or perish in the lagoon.

The Peoples Democratic Party on Tuesday asked Lagos State Governor Babatunde Fashola to suspend Akiolu forthwith.

However, the President-elect described Lagos as home for all, adding that the time had come for Nigerians to look past ethnicity in the general interest of peace and unity.

READ MORE: http://www.naij.com/417122-forgive-akiolu-and-move-on-buhari-tells-igbo.html